Ahead of Potential Wave Election, Democrats Prepare to Ride the Crest in Kansas, Florida and Mississippi

Three "Reach" States Emerge for Senate Democrats

On a hot day in the Mississippi Hills this month, the musicians at the local Blues Fest weren’t the only ones seeking to energize the crowd. In his short-sleeve, olive button-up shirt, Scott Colom was trying to strike a chord with the music-lovers in Marshall County too.

Colom’s appearance in the hills near the Mississippi-Tennessee state line was somewhat metaphorical. Colom has a steep hill to climb himself.

Colom is seeking to oust incumbent Sen. Cindy Hyde Smith, a Republican who has served as the state’s junior Senator since 2018. Colom, 43, is a Democratic district attorney who argues his prospects are better than most outsiders suspect. Despite Trump’s 23-point margin of victory in 2024 in Mississippi, Colom contends that the political winds have shifted.

“People are ready to go in a different elections,” Colom told Meidas Touch Network, “I go into Republican areas and voters tell me ‘We’re tired of what the tariffs are doing to our farmers and our small businesses.”

Colom’s campaign is one of several in the South and Midwest about which the Democratic party is increasingly bullish. From Mississippi to Florida to Kansas, even if victory is out-of-reach, the competitiveness of the races bodes well for Democratic prospects elsewhere, according to multiple party operatives.

“If the war has not been resolved by the end of the summer, all bets are off,” Jessica Taylor, the Senate and Governors campaign editor for the Cook Political Report. Taylor said Democrats are trying to boost top candidates and energize voters in states like Mississippi, Florida and Kansas, sensing a “once-in-a-generation” election is possible this year.

Democrats are indeed touting some data points to galvanize support and donors for the challengers in these “reach states.”

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee told Meidas Touch Network, “In Mississippi, in the 2018 midterm primary, Republicans outpaced Democrats 157,170 to 87,931. Fast forward to 2026: Republicans 156,600, Democrats 146,300. Republican turnout stayed essentially flat — while Democratic turnout nearly doubled”

In an interview with Meidas Touch Network from Mississippi, Colom said, “I’m at a point now where I’m asking myself ‘How can I lose?”

Republicans do very much expect Colom to lose. A spokesperson for Hyde Smith told Meidas Touch Network, “Team Cindy is confident in our support from voters across Mississippi. Our opponent, Scott Colom is on the wrong side of the issues that matter to Mississippians. He was handpicked by Sen. Chuck Schumer and the D.C. liberal elite.”

Taylor said any true vulnerability for Republicans in Mississippi might remain hidden until autumn. She said, in the meantime, “Democrats are trying to have as many options on the table as possible. When there’s a wave, you often don’t know it until September or October.”

Democrats argue that a wave is already building on the beaches in Florida…. Metaphorically.

They argue the Democratic hopeful in Florida’s Senate race, Alex Vindman, has far outraised the Republican incumbent Sen. Ashley Moody.

A party spokesperson said in the first three months of 2026, Vindman significantly outraised Ashley Moody by a margin of $8,188,392 to $2,611,364.

Vindman is taking his campaign into the heart of Trump strongholds in Florida. In May, he joined a golf cart parade around the Villages, the largest retirement community in the world. Trump had visited just weeks earlier to tout a tax policy, and had galvanized some of the retirees who voted overwhelmingly for him in 2016, 2020 and 2024.

Per his campaign, Vindman’s stop at the Villages included groups of Republicans, among hundreds of supporters.

Vindman is convinced he is making inroads in swaths of Florida’s “red” communities, including with longtime Trump voters.

His campaign’s social media team plastered this video of a Florida Republican carrying a “Republican 4 Vindman” sign and pronouncing his support.

Last week, in the community of Islamorada, along the Florida Keys, Vindman sought to make progress with the state’s fishing community. He pressed the issues of rising fuel and diesel costs, and curated a video of a 25-year veteran fisherman, who talked about the economic struggles that are emerging.

Florida Republicans remain bullish on holding the seat. Moody’s campaign did not respond to requests for comment.

Moody has touted her work in her term as the appointed Senator for Florida and the recent endorsement of a Democratic sheriff, “Florida’s success story was built in large part by supporting the men and women who risk their lives to protect our communities. I am honored to fight for our LEOs and to have earned the trust of both Republican and Democrat Sheriffs across the Sunshine State.”

Her campaign social media accounts closely juxtapose Moody with Trump.

A Change Research poll showed the race is competitive and within the margin of error.

https://changeresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Deep-Dive-into-Florida-1.pdf

“Has there been enough MAGA backlash in Florida? I’m not sure yet,” said Taylor, who is closely tracking the Florida race. “If Vindman focuses on his military background and his national security background, that could be compelling.”

In an interview with Meidas Touch Network, Vindman displayed a tan ballcap featuring the logo of Vote Vets, a group that champions Democratic military veterans who run for office.

“I go up to veterans, introduce myself as an army veteran and start a conversation about what’s on their mind,” Vindman said. “I take pride in the fact that I’ve helped veterans get elected. It’s a shared value that allows me to start a conversation and find out what’s on people’s mind.”

Vindman’s campaign team is socializing a FOX News report which characterizes the race as “competitive.”

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/six-months-midterms-senate-seats-could-tip-balance-power

Vindman said, “This is a fruitful environment for change. People want change. People want reform. People want a change of direction. That is the sense inside Florida.”

Vindman is casting himself as a “national security” candidate, emphasizing his military roots and his service to the country. Democrats made huge gains in 2018 in the U.S. House, by triumphantly nominating “national security” candidates, including Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) and Mike Sherrill (D-NJ), each of whom had intelligence or military backgrounds. Slotkin, Spanberger and Sherrill won in particularly competitive House districts during the 2018 campaign cycle. Slotkin later parlayed her success into a successful Senate campaign in 2024. Spanberger and Sherrill both won gubernatorial races in 2025.

Taylor and other political reporters warn the candidates in these “reach” states of Mississippi, Florida and Kansas need to distance themselves from national party leaders in Washington, to overperform. She said, “They’ve got to be careful. Any influence from the national party could backfire in states like that. You have candidates who are going to have to be independent and removed from the national party brand.”

In Pittsburg, Kansas, a former coal town near the Missouri border, Adam Hamilton tried to make a splash a few weeks ago. Candidates don’t frequently travel to the state’s far southeast corner, where Pittsburg State University is a large employer and where outdoor recreation is a big part of the events calendar.

Hamilton has faith in his ability to pull off a political miracle. He’s a pastor and leader of the United Methodist Church of the Resurrection. But he’s also a Democrat seeking to flip the U.S. Senate seat held by Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS).

In any other year, a different type of prayer would be needed for Democrats to win statewide in a Kansas US Senate race. But this isn’t any other year, according to Hamilton and Democratic campaign operatives. If he prevails in the August primary elections, his party thinks Hamilton can make Kansas competitive.

In his announcement to his church, Hamilton argued he’d be running as an “independent candidate” on the Democratic ticket.

His word choice is noteworthy.

Hamilton told his church that he and his wife thought hard before he announced his candidacy. He told the church, “We spent the last 12 weeks in a process of discernment, asking if this was God’s will, why me, and what difference I could make if I ran. We listened to people in 18 towns across Kansas. We prayed and fasted. My emotions ranged from conviction to fear to hope and finally peace.

Hamilton told Meidas Touch Network, “This is a real race. Not only among Democrats and unaffiliated who are open for change, but Republicans as well.”

At a campaign stop in Emporia, Kansas, a city near Interstate 35 which Trump won 56%-44% in 2024, Hamilton made a pitch to voters about “how the federal government could actually help small town economies thrive instead of making their lives harder.”

Hamilton described his campaign philosophy to Meidas Touch Network, “There are people who are willing to vote across the aisle for a Democrat, if there’s a better Democratic candidate. A lot of the policies happening in Washington are hurting Kansas.”

Hamilton noted the soaring costs of seeds, fertilizer, diesel and farming loans. Hamilton said some of the GOP voters might not be willing to blame Trump, but would be open to blaming Sen. Marshall.

A spokesman for Marshall told Meidas Touch Network, “Senator Marshall doesn’t take anything for granted, and will run for re-election like it’s a tie game at Arrowhead in the 4th quarter.”

Marshall’s spokesman also said, “We still don’t know for sure that it will be the woke megachurch millionaire that we will take on in November — but either way, we are prepared to earn Kansas’ vote again.”

Hamilton acknowledged he has to “walk a balance” when criticizing Trump, due to the President’s overwhelming victory in the state. Hamilton said, “Part of the group you want to win, they don’t support the policies, but they might support President trump. So you have to focus on the policies.”

“A lot of people nod their heads and say ‘yeah, I don’t even know why we’re in the war in Iran,” Hamilton said, “My focus is not on President Trump, it’s on Roger Marshall.”

Taylor’s analysis for Cook Political Report said Kansas shares characteristics with other Midwest states that have turned against some of Trump’s economic policies. She said, “Kansas is one of the most intriguing (races) to me. It has a lot of similar characteristics to Iowa, where you’re seeing backlash to tariffs, rising diesel prices and fertilizer prices that are hurting farmers.”

Whether he can win is an open question. But Hamilton clearly has an understanding of why U.S. Senate races carry outside importance in national politics. He described a call with a donor who touted Hamilton’s prospects of making the Kansas race competitive and helping Democrats win back leverage in Washington. Hamilton said the donor told him, “Hey, a vote is a vote, whether it comes in Ohio or in Texas or in Kansas. That vote in the Senate is a vote!”

Mississippi and Florida Democrats would likely argue the same. All of them are trying to catch a wave, if a wave forms.